Sunday, November 05, 2006

Trot Your Best Five Out There (But Who Are They?)

1) Chris Carpenter
2) Dontrelle Willis
3) Jeff Suppan
4) Mark Mulder
5) Adam Wainwright

There they are. You're starting five for next season's Redbirds. If you would have told anybody two years ago that after winning the 2006 World Series, Mark Mulder would start the following season as the Cards' number four starter, they would have thought you're crazy. But that's the truth, he's the number four...at best.

And Adam Wainwright - sure he made a case for the closer role over the last month of the season but I don't think you just decide to replace a guy like Jason Isringhausen because a young stud got hot. So Wainwright goes into the fifth starter role...for now, until we see how Izzy responds to surgery.

Carp is obviously your number one, no questions asked. And Jeff Suppan is resigned and slid into your number three role. And he's dominant once again.

Willis in the two hole. And there you have it.

Questions and comments, let me know?

OH WAIT.... It just occurred to me that perhaps Willis may be a bit of a surprise to some of you. And perhaps you're wondering why Anthony Reyes isn't in the rotation like most people expected. Well, we will trade Chris Duncan and Anthony Reyes to the Florida Marlins to get D-Train, so there's that.

I'm talking about a perfect world, aren't I? If you really want to know what I believe, then listen up. Not much changes next season guys, especially in the case of the front office handing more money to Walt Jocketty. The Dewitt Bros. have now seen that you can win a World Championship on $90 million dollars, so they'll do their best to try it again. They're not going to sign any big namer in the free agent market, trust me.

BUT WHAT THEY MIGHT DO: Leave it in the hands of General Manager genius Walt Jocketty. He can pull off this Willis trade folks, believe it. Here's how it works: Florida is still in the market for young players, Duncan and Reyes are both young. Florida is still looking to trade Willis, like they have been the last two years, but no team has been able or willing to offer them young players with boatloads of potential - the Cardinals can do this. Florida would get a young pitcher in Reyes, and a young first basemen in Duncan. The Cardinals get a legit number one starter who will throw behind Carpenter in the rotation.

Still not convinced? Why, because you're hesitant about getting rid of Reyes? Yea, so was I. But we aren't sure what Reyes is really made of, he's shined at times and he's looked terrible at other times, Willis pretty much always brings the same thing. Reyes CANNOT pitch on short rest, Willis can. Reyes CANNOT provide the Cardinals with that extremely important number two starter in the postseason, Willis can. Carpenter and any other Cardinal pitcher can't give the Cardinals the most potent 1-2 starters in the National League, Carpenter and Willis can.

BUT...would the Cardinals really be able to get Willis and keep Jeff Suppan? I'm not sure, it doesn't seem likely. But when you think about where the Cardinals are going to be spending money in the offseason, it pretty much all lies in pitching. They're going to sign Edmonds for $10 million, Ronnie Belliard wouldn't be a Cardinal if we get Willis and Suppan (Aaron Miles would have to start at second), but other than that not much changes. Preston Wilson would become important to resign if we trade Duncan, and he has said that he would stay in St. Louis if he knows he'll be getting plenty of playing time.

So. We take on D-Train's contract and sign Suppan and it ends there. No more money spent.
(Also of note: Florida is interested in Jim Edmonds)

I know it's a little much to swallow, and maybe tough for the Cardinals club to pull it all off. But wouldn't it be sweet?

IF WE DON'T GET WILLIS: Then I would say it goes Carpenter, Suppan, Mulder, Wainwright, Reyes.

*We sign Mulder for one year, a incentive-laden deal, and simply hope that he regains form. If we trade for Willis, this would give the Cardinals two big name lefty starters (very interesting). But as far as Mulder goes, I don't think it will be so easy for the Cardinals to simply resign him for one year like everybody thinks. He's won more games than other LEFT-HANDED starter in the last six years, and we all know how much teams are paying for lefties these days. I think the best chance the Cardinals have at getting Mulder for cheap is if Mark decides that he'd rather sign a one year deal and prove he's still got his stuff and then cash big in 2008.

*Wainwright starts in the rotation. Izzy in the 'pen (when he gets healthy, until then.....we'll cover that in "bullpen" session.) If things go nuts in the closer role and Izzy can't back to form, then you consider bringing Wainwright back to bullpen and you find a fifth starter on the waiver wire.

*We hope Reyes brings his good stuff on a consistent basis, and thats all we can do....hope.

*Weaver goes bye-bye, but I wish it was different. I'm assuming he'd like to cash in while he can, and the chance may not be there many more years for Weaver. Although I think he'd be best under Dave Duncan. Weaver could be damned good again, now that he's got some confidence back. Or it could just be a case of a pitcher getting hot, and he'll go back to the Jeff Weaver who was cut during the regular season. Best wishes to Jeff, it was a pleasure having him aboard.

*Late in the season, long after we've forgotten about Jason Marquis, ESPN comes out with breaking news during a late night Sportscenter. Despite the Yankees investing millions of dollars on him, Jason Marquis washes up at the bottom of the burger flipping industry.

Do you think I'm crazy? Let me know...

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Here's a site that debates the Weaver vs. Suppan situation.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AqTrpd8tJFCH1NcfutV9E.kRvLYF?slug=weavervssuppanatoughmatc&prov=tsn&type=lgns

I would love the trade of Reyes and Dunc for Willis. I don't know if that would be enough to get him, do you? I also heard that the birds were thinking about giving Mulder a contract similar to Carp's contract when he was hurt. What was that, a 3 year contract? Pretty much telling him that we have faith and we will give him a deal. That way, if he comes back dominant, we have him for 3 years at a cheap price.

Anonymous said...

I'll have to think on this for a bit and get back to you.